Senator Obama's Decisive Victory Sheds Light on the Rising Electoral Importance of the Latino Vote in National Elections

Published on Nov. 13, 2008 in the Attleboro Sun Chronicle

The Presidential Election held last week was historic and important for the political landscape of the United States in a number of different ways.  In addition to the election of the first African-America President the 2008 election also illuminated the power of the Latino vote and the importance of cultivating this voting bloc for future Presidential Candidates.  According to an article posted in La Opinion just two days after the election, one of the key factors in the rise of electoral importance Latino and Hispanic voters is the nearly thirty percent increase in their turnout from the 2004 Presidential Election.  In addition to the economic crisis and the major divide between the two candidates on the issues of immigration reform as factors behind the increased turnout of Latino voters, over 1.5 million Latino's were granted citizenship and registered to vote.  Further CNN exit polling shows that out of an estimated twelve million Latino's who are registered to vote, nearly 83% or ten million people voted, far out performing the national average of 67% among other ethnic groups.

The increased turnout discussed above turned what New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson described as a "sleeping giant" into an "actual giant."  Ironically enough, Richardson attributes this rise in the prominence of the Latino voting bloc to President-elect Obama "spoke to them not as an ethnic group but as American voters pursuing the American dream, focusing on mainstream issues like the economy and the war in Iraq."  Nationally CNN exit polls indicate that Latino and Hispanic voters favored Senator Barack Obama over Senator McCain by a margin of thirty-six percentage points.  Mark Hugo Lopez of the Pew Hispanic Center's study of exit polling data from Tuesday's election attributes the significance of these numbers to the simple fact that it represents a 10% drop in support of the Republican Party from the 204 election, where President Bush garnered 40-44% of the Hispanic vote.  Even more telling of the ability of Latino voters to, in the words of Governor Richardson, "determine the destiny of the country," is that of the thirteen states that have Latino communities totaling over ten percent of their total populations Senator Obama won all but three (TX, AR, and UT).

More importantly however Latino voters were able to be the determining factor for Senator Obama's victory in several key western battleground states as well as in Florida.  According to an article published one month before the election, the Velasquez Institute of Latino Studies and Public Policy correctly predicted that Latino voters would provide Obama with margins of victory in Neveda, Colorado, and New Mexico.  For example without the Latino vote in Colorado Senator Obama and Senator McCain would be in a statistical dead heat with 44.24% and 42.41% of the vote respectively.  However with the support of the Hispanic and Latino community, as indicated by polling from the Pew Center, Obama was able to jump nearly six points for a 51% to 45% victory.  The influence of Hispanic and Latino voters was even more pronounced in New Mexico where both Pew and Velasquez polls show McCain with an estimated four point lead without Latino voters factored into the equation.  With these crucial voters however Senator Obama garners an eight point advantage over Senator McCain.  These three states constitute nineteen electoral votes all of which were cast for the Republican Candidate President George W. Bush in 2004, the switch from red to blue is best explained by Denver Mayor Federico Pena who stated "without the Latino vote, we would not have won those states."

Another state in which the emerging Latino voting bloc proved very influential in the 2008 Presidential Race was Florida.  Pew Associate Director Mark Hugo Lopez argues that the central factor in Obama's three-point victory in Florida were Latino voters, who favored him over his Republican opponent by a fifteen point margin.  Interestingly enough Senator Obama's numbers mirror those of President Bush in the 2004 race in which the Republican Party held Florida.  In total these four swings states have forty-six electoral votes and were an important component in Barack Obama's victory.  These numbers should not be underestimated simply because the difference in electoral votes was much wider than the forty-six votes controlled by these states.  In reality this group of states, and more importantly the Latino voters who hold such a powerful influence over them, could easily tip the scales in the modern era of extremely close elections (in terms of electoral votes).

While it is impossible to judge from a single election the future of any voting bloc, the data garnered from exit polling and research done in the aftermath of the historic 2008 Presidential Election shows that the Latino community is uniquely positioned to greatly influence future national elections.  Furthermore the increased turnout of Latino voters across the nation confirms the belief of Efrain Escobedo, director of a bipartisan voter registration organization, that "this is an electorate [Hispanic and Latino voters] that now understands the importance of voting and they made a significant shift in the political landscape."  Without question the number of Latino and Hispanic voters in the United States increase these voters will increasingly become more important to any candidate for the Presidency of the United States and reorient the polices of future candidates.